Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 68507.422907 72471.115909 76440.948489 80712.262980 85175.009958 89697.149630 94622.864438
2025-03-23 62313.738975 68389.858053 74653.107924 81582.248724 89023.749128 96765.839696 105420.028544
2025-03-30 57841.988074 65364.242640 73296.280876 82264.243084 92101.639209 102544.303914 114447.418274
2025-04-06 54031.785175 62590.846942 71790.816674 82382.829746 94207.520318 106968.709329 121747.750373
2025-04-13 50803.124937 60155.271161 70378.793463 82337.344471 95892.296449 110730.016793 128148.965902
2025-04-20 48866.735253 58991.455720 70224.722276 83547.248303 98848.506117 115803.668683 135940.992902
2025-04-27 47176.359346 57972.082786 70113.528586 84695.525979 101644.208922 120632.500225 143420.322359
2025-05-04 45356.737221 56683.665569 69587.063086 85268.577068 103699.483915 124560.542278 149837.997733
2025-05-11 43402.348974 55129.374010 68654.194784 85277.654264 105023.586655 127590.085775 155182.855519
2025-05-18 41742.675110 53842.451488 67960.326706 85497.633870 106535.996187 130796.468022 160710.282004
2025-05-25 40157.864910 52571.249268 67217.727312 85597.011466 107853.820319 133738.716705 165909.094648
2025-06-01 39180.430525 51995.370487 67271.359246 86618.807129 110249.236486 137944.254952 172610.936702
2025-06-08 37562.862863 50580.873196 66269.512478 86335.856593 111066.962000 140288.215064 177140.516360
2025-06-15 36810.438668 50222.058383 66544.340012 87605.183122 113771.554161 144911.784781 184444.957549
2025-06-22 35886.662810 49605.079025 66464.077171 88407.029362 115886.090492 148820.102468 190902.050035
2025-06-29 34715.448723 48624.386810 65886.336928 88550.578143 117158.844964 151688.474922 196094.264212
2025-07-06 33529.471774 47580.585460 65188.748052 88506.352475 118168.433563 154216.469801 200865.879182
2025-07-13 33001.522540 47376.966381 65546.625646 89790.029284 120840.487456 158803.084659 208199.079325
2025-07-20 32476.870312 47154.768440 65862.463394 91007.487414 123425.823537 163291.351006 215436.965566
2025-07-27 31723.726511 46598.839167 65720.625009 91614.940104 125223.585966 166796.230011 221464.406518
2025-08-03 30762.324618 45729.412363 65138.974989 91624.571567 126236.075787 169305.447025 226247.581514
2025-08-10 29937.935974 45019.886469 64744.365179 91857.729517 127521.640640 172153.829305 231465.139781
2025-08-17 29102.173731 44267.968243 64269.178864 91963.057854 128625.777201 174765.363859 236388.615347